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NASA / LMSAL via SpaceWeather. com
This color-coded image combines observations made by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory in several extreme ultraviolet wavelengths, highlighting a bright X-class flare toward the upper left of the sun's disk on March 6.
The sun unleashed one of the biggest flares ever seen during its current activity cycle late Tuesday — an X5.4-class outburst strong enough to trigger a radio blackout. The resulting geomagnetic storm could affect electrical grids, communication links, satellite navigation systems and airline schedules over the next couple of days.
The outburst at 7:24 p.m. ET was followed about an hour later by an X1.3-class blast. Solar flares are rated on a letter-plus-number scale, with X being the most powerful category. Usually the numbers run from 1 to 9, but X-class flares can run higher. The highest reading recorded recently is an X28, observed in 2003.
Joe Kunches, a space scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, says the double blast made for a "Super Tuesday," in a different sense from the political meaning.
The big question is, what effect will this solar activity have on Earth? The solar blasts threw off waves of electrically charged particles known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. Those waves are now speeding outward, and space-weather forecasters expect them to touch off strong geomagnetic storms when they interact with Earth's magnetic field late Wednesday and early Thursday.
"The most northern states in the 'Lower 48' should have a chance to see the aurora," the prediction center reported on Facebook.
Could something more serious happen? All this activity is already whipping up an S3 solar radiation storm. "Such a storm is mainly a nuisance to satellites, causing occasional reboots of onboard computers and adding noise to imaging systems," SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips said.
The coming geomagnetic storm is predicted to reach the G3 level, which could trigger alarms on electrical power systems and create intermittent problems for GPS navigation services. Some airline flights are likely to be rerouted so they don't fly so close to the poles, and problems could arise with communication systems in polar regions. That's the bad news. The good news is that NASA and NOAA have lots of resources in space to monitor solar activity, giving network operators more time to assess and prepare.
Check out NOAA's chart of space weather scales to learn more about what S3, G3 and the other storm desigations mean.
Experts at the Space Weather Prediction Center say the storm generated by the X5.4-class flare is on a trajectory to deliver a glancing blow rather than a direct hit on Earth, but they caution that the sunspot region responsible for the flare, AR1429, "remains potent, and subsequent activity is certainly possible."
For now, chances are that the most noticeable effect for most people will be an upswing in the number of fantastic pictures of the northern lights. AR1429 has been acting up over the past few days, and SpaceWeather.com has been adding plenty of stunners to its aurora gallery. If you get a nice snapshot, please consider sharing it with us via the Cosmic Log Facebook page or msnbc.com's FirstPerson in-box.
The solar storm could cause communication problems, affecting radio and satellite systems. NBC's Tom Costello reports.
Update for 4:40 p.m. ET March 7: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center reports that the coronal mass ejections sent out on Tuesday are projected to impact Earth and Mars as well as several interplanetary spacecraft, including NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope, the Messenger probe at Mercury and the sun-watching STEREO-B satellite. The NASA advisory also notes that the X5.4-class flare was the strongest solar outburst since an X6.9 blast on Aug. 9, 2011. In that previous case, the resulting CME was not directed at Earth, and no ill effects were felt.
Update for 5 p.m. ET March 7: A lot of commenters are talking about the Carrington Event of 1859, a solar storm that was so strong it frazzled telegraph wires. That was associated with what was surely an off-the-scale solar flare, much more powerful than the X28 referenced at the beginning of this item — so I've rephrased that reference accordingly.
More about solar storms and auroras:
- Northern lights shine through a crack
- Rocket flies into the northern lights
- Aurora extravaganza glows in space
- Planet looks back at the northern lights
- Slideshow: The best of the northern lights
- Cosmic Log's auroral archive
This item was first published at 12:30 a.m. ET March 7.
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.
Leave a Comment:
When the sun burns out in 4-5 billion years won't that burn up earth? It's what scientists say will happen. Won't that be the fire that destroys earth? Seems so to me.
Yes, the theory is that the Sun's brief "red giant" phase about 5 billion years from now will "burn up" (and possibly engulf) the Earth, assuming that no advanced civilization could do anything about it.
The Carbon footprint strikes again ! Even the sun isn't safe from mankind and his follies !
The bottom line is will it give us better surfing waves in California??
A full Moon at its closest point to Earth.
Hey guys will this be destuctive to the earth??
Folks should be able to weather the storm ... You'll probably see no impact, although if you're taking an intercontinental flight tomorrow you might be flying a more southerly course.
No worse than the dentists that always wants to take 20 or so X-Rays , every time you see them ....
I had to set that photo as my background. Stunning!
Our Sun is under a lot of scientific scrutiny for reasons most scientists don't want to print.
A sip of champaign, and some marshmallows on a stick. It's the only way to fry.
Nothing to fear but fear itself!
Why would the article not attempt to narrow down the impact to earth time window for the readers? Don't fly during this time window WHEN? If the burst occurred 7AM Tuesday the impact can be anywhere from very late Wednesday to sometime Thursday (depends on the angle of exit from the sun and distance from the earth and also what place on earth you are and the time of day. If it exits the side of the sun (not aimed directly at the earth and say 45 degree angle to earth) it will burst in a circle just like a mushroom cloud and still hit us - just not directly and it takes longer. If it hits earth at midnight your time which this one may do for North America then it again will not effect you for another couple hours as it travels around the surface from Europe heading through and around the planet.
As to the 2012 doomsday bible thumpers view, the most dangerous threat to man has always been and will always be OTHER MEN. Sure there may be a flare, but the things that will kill you are the angry mobs that result from the economic collapse and panic, the lawless behavior when people feel threatened and hungry or thirsty and the wars that ultimately result from those. So end of days NO the world will survive and go on. Many people will likely die but not because of a solar flare but because of the response of people to the event which was not made clear how to prepare for it and how to not overreact.
Of course all of this is Obama's fault. If it weren't for his "failed" policies, we wouldn't be so close to the sun.
We much much closer to Prez O's preferred source of insight, Indonesia. Where is your Indonesian tolerance?
"[President Obama] praised Indonesia - the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation - for a 'spirit of
tolerance that is written into your constitution, symbolized in your mosques and churches and temples, and embodied in your people,' a quality worthy for all the world to emulate."
Wilson, S. (Nov. 10, 2010) "Obama praises Indonesia's 'spirit of tolerance' as a model" retrieved Feb. 10,
2012 from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/09/AR2010110906579.html?wprss=rss_print
ItsSimple didn't you see the sign about not feeding the trolls?
The constant intermittent disruption to electronic communications will drive us all to distraction. The worst thing that can happen is to lose all communication to the entrenched ruling class and their administrative hierarchy. They're always looking for excuses.
Quick, get on the phone and call your nearest "Doomsday Prepper" to find out what you should do so you don't die in the cataclysm! The sky is falling the sky is falling!!!!
Naah the electric lines are burning, the ignitiion wires in the car are burn, the cell phone is fried and where is my tv? See Carrington Event
The statement that "The most powerful flare on record is an X28, recorded in 2003" is just pure crap.
Try Carrington Event and similar flare activity that resulted in burning electric lines.
I guess what I'm talking about here is the "on record" part ... The Carrington event was certainly stronger. So I guess I'll rephrase my reference slightly.
Alan...you obviously have the calm demeanor of a scientific mind but you most certainly do understand that the possibility exists that a Carrington Event aimed directly at earth would have devastating consequences to transformers etc caused by GIC (Geomagnetically Induced Current....for those unaware of term) which will come from the ground rather than atmosphere. This current running up into a transformer will burn the paper wrapping of the copper wiring and subsequently melt them should we experience this type of CME. The 2003 Valentines Day X flare was directed away from earth. If it had been we would have seen a Carrington Event as its estimated that was an X45 flare (previously estimated at 28). To everyone....the PRINCIPAL issue is to protect the transformers. Without these we have no power and as I said in my opening post, they are about $10 million each, weigh approx 200 tons and only about 30-50 can be produced annually. If hundreds of these get knocked out there will be no easy way to replace them IN YEARS. Imagine a world without power for years! Generators will last a few weeks and then what? Take nuclear plants. Without power for the circulating pumps to work, reactors will overheat. Imagine 400 Fukashimas.... BUT there is a way to protect the transformers. A capacitor bypass device can be installed on them. Previously such devices couldn't handle high currents but Advanced Fusion Systems have developed one which could. The issue is all transformers must be retrofitted with such devices. Wouldn't it be an incredible pity if we were to fall as a civilization when there was a way of protecting ourselves.
It's going to happen and previous events were in a far less electrified world.
Geeeeeezz , take the article for what it is ....
Hazardous RF is produced by man around the world all the time now ....
How are we going to take proper precautions against electric lines on telephone poles frying in the flare--world wide--like they have repeatedly since the first modern line burnings of the Carrington Event?
Sounds like expensive prophylactics
The principal issue are the transformers and it ain't Megatron or Optimus Prime. The rest of the equipment can be replaced easier.
I'll be out the next couple of nights expecting fabulous displays of northern lights. When they are great, they are indescribably great!
This is right-wing, teabagging, Faux, Koch Brother, Limbaugh, Big Oil propaganda. This is primitive sun worshipping. We all know CO2 is all powerful.
Like some Rock star once said " It's better to burn out than fade away". And there's always a light at the end of the tunnel and it's a train.
That would be the great Neil Young.
and it was "rust" not fade away......now that's going back a few years! My My Hey Hey
BTW I stand corrected after thinking about it he did say fade away as well!!
Here's hoping for a flare of massive proportions that will singe the eye balls from our skulls and boil the oceans into a swirling mass of salty lava like H2O. F you all.
"I love the smell of napalm in the morning"
That's nice I need some tanning! No wounder there is so many people suffering from depression, we are in constant fear every day, there is not a single good news that gives us a prospectus future and to blame is???.... the news, tv, and internet. Thanks but no thanks.
Question ...
Aside from the expected minor to moderate interference with some electrical grids, communications and space science satellites, I was wondering if there were any inherent dangers, biological or electronic, posed by the solar activity to the current occupants of the orbiting International Space Station. If so, what if any are the precautions they could take aboard the ISS?
Peace to all
Steve~ Tin foil hats with a nice, thick mustard liner?
Yes there is and they have designed features (safe locales) where they can shelter the storm. Fortunately we always have a few days grace before the plasma and effects arrive. It is certainly a hot topic when interplanetary travel (Mars) is discussed on what long term radiation exposure could/would have on astronauts. The earth has its magnetosphere to protect us but a spacecraft would not.
Blackbird,
Yes, that seems plausible. I understand that the crew has taken shelter several times inside the docked Russian return capsule when the SSI was anywhere near some of the orbiting space debris that posed a threat to the orbiting platform. Thanks for your post.
Peace
(PS) ~ OldThang ... I went over to the local haberdashery and unfortunately there was a run on those very popular tin foil hats ...They have to put in another order. :-)
I hope it takes out everyones cell phones so I can sit and watch everyone running around with the hands flailing in the air screaming "My cell phone quit working, the world is at an end" . When cell services return, I can then watch and listen to all the morons contacting there lawyers for law suits!
Hey all you Cluckers out there...."the sky is falling, the sky is falling"! LOL (maniacally)
We should be working on the materials tech to build sky-pillars. If I am elected, we will have sky-poles erected by 2020, and they will be American!!
We have heard these warnings before only to have nothing notable happen to our power grids, radios, radars...etc. But, the oil speculators seemed to use this (indirectly of course) as a reason to inflate prices. At least someone is taking this seriously.
...nothing to happen? Check 1989 Quebec 9 hour power failure which also affected the east coast and that was a similar X flare magnitude. If a big one (say X30'ish) flare were to happen you would see some genuine scrambling going on. In an attempt to avert disaster, power grids would be shut down during the storms height although that "might" not protect infrastructures from the GIC. Many have stated that power lines become antennae for this current as well as pipelines, cables etc. I would disconnect any electronic equipment from your power sources "just in case" as some of our "surge protectors" are of poor quality and you could avoid some expensive failures.
There are of course a lot more details about cause & effect such as matching polarities between the solar wind and our magnetosphere which causes the particles to be harmlessly deflected away.
Lastly Google 1989 Quebec power failure and you will see what happened.
This is not a case of the sky is falling.....it is a fact.
I have to know this..My wife is currently in a different state and our only means of communication are by MSN or by cellphone. Seriously, we only ever use the internet to talk to each other on webcam. Is this going to affect us? I have to see her..I currently live in Arizona.
dey he is..dey he go..dey that dinosaur..dey he is..dey he run
No.
Hello!
Potato.
Shadow know what cause solar flare! Shadow fart so big, it knock out electrical grid.
Shadow..what did I tell you about farting on our guest Kargassa? @!$%#. I swear..you NEVER stop farting. It smells in here sonny.
Baby, don't go criticizing my farts. My farts will end all of mankind. The beginning of the end has already begun. As my farts heat up the planet, glaciers melt, water levels rise.
You are all like special snowflakes. Soon, you will all melt into oblivion from the wrath of my gas, and nothing of value will have been lost.
....
Yeah, well..your farts are already heating up our house -_-
Even in the winter time..it feels like Summer -_-
Always farting on people. It's a shame..a bad shame..I remember when you farted on poor Steve Irwin..and he had to ask Mario to save him in a crying voice "HELP MEH..HELP MEH MARIO..HE GONNA FART ON MEH..HE GONNA GET MEH" Were his exact words -_-
I love you, baby xD..
Pshh I love you more Guardian Angel xD..
i live in pa. and i remember seeing an aurora in 1958 or 59. it was amazing and something i've never seen since. if you get the chance, look up.
humans are the cancer of the earth, fry us all and hope evolution can do better next time.