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NASA / LMSAL via SpaceWeather. com
This color-coded image combines observations made by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory in several extreme ultraviolet wavelengths, highlighting a bright X-class flare toward the upper left of the sun's disk on March 6.
The sun unleashed one of the biggest flares ever seen during its current activity cycle late Tuesday — an X5.4-class outburst strong enough to trigger a radio blackout. The resulting geomagnetic storm could affect electrical grids, communication links, satellite navigation systems and airline schedules over the next couple of days.
The outburst at 7:24 p.m. ET was followed about an hour later by an X1.3-class blast. Solar flares are rated on a letter-plus-number scale, with X being the most powerful category. Usually the numbers run from 1 to 9, but X-class flares can run higher. The highest reading recorded recently is an X28, observed in 2003.
Joe Kunches, a space scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center, says the double blast made for a "Super Tuesday," in a different sense from the political meaning.
The big question is, what effect will this solar activity have on Earth? The solar blasts threw off waves of electrically charged particles known as coronal mass ejections, or CMEs. Those waves are now speeding outward, and space-weather forecasters expect them to touch off strong geomagnetic storms when they interact with Earth's magnetic field late Wednesday and early Thursday.
"The most northern states in the 'Lower 48' should have a chance to see the aurora," the prediction center reported on Facebook.
Could something more serious happen? All this activity is already whipping up an S3 solar radiation storm. "Such a storm is mainly a nuisance to satellites, causing occasional reboots of onboard computers and adding noise to imaging systems," SpaceWeather.com's Tony Phillips said.
The coming geomagnetic storm is predicted to reach the G3 level, which could trigger alarms on electrical power systems and create intermittent problems for GPS navigation services. Some airline flights are likely to be rerouted so they don't fly so close to the poles, and problems could arise with communication systems in polar regions. That's the bad news. The good news is that NASA and NOAA have lots of resources in space to monitor solar activity, giving network operators more time to assess and prepare.
Check out NOAA's chart of space weather scales to learn more about what S3, G3 and the other storm desigations mean.
Experts at the Space Weather Prediction Center say the storm generated by the X5.4-class flare is on a trajectory to deliver a glancing blow rather than a direct hit on Earth, but they caution that the sunspot region responsible for the flare, AR1429, "remains potent, and subsequent activity is certainly possible."
For now, chances are that the most noticeable effect for most people will be an upswing in the number of fantastic pictures of the northern lights. AR1429 has been acting up over the past few days, and SpaceWeather.com has been adding plenty of stunners to its aurora gallery. If you get a nice snapshot, please consider sharing it with us via the Cosmic Log Facebook page or msnbc.com's FirstPerson in-box.
The solar storm could cause communication problems, affecting radio and satellite systems. NBC's Tom Costello reports.
Update for 4:40 p.m. ET March 7: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center reports that the coronal mass ejections sent out on Tuesday are projected to impact Earth and Mars as well as several interplanetary spacecraft, including NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope, the Messenger probe at Mercury and the sun-watching STEREO-B satellite. The NASA advisory also notes that the X5.4-class flare was the strongest solar outburst since an X6.9 blast on Aug. 9, 2011. In that previous case, the resulting CME was not directed at Earth, and no ill effects were felt.
Update for 5 p.m. ET March 7: A lot of commenters are talking about the Carrington Event of 1859, a solar storm that was so strong it frazzled telegraph wires. That was associated with what was surely an off-the-scale solar flare, much more powerful than the X28 referenced at the beginning of this item — so I've rephrased that reference accordingly.
More about solar storms and auroras:
- Northern lights shine through a crack
- Rocket flies into the northern lights
- Aurora extravaganza glows in space
- Planet looks back at the northern lights
- Slideshow: The best of the northern lights
- Cosmic Log's auroral archive
This item was first published at 12:30 a.m. ET March 7.
Alan Boyle is msnbc.com's science editor. Connect with the Cosmic Log community by "liking" the log's Facebook page, following @b0yle on Twitter or adding Cosmic Log's Google+ page to your circle. You can also check out "The Case for Pluto," my book about the controversial dwarf planet and the search for other worlds.
Leave a Comment:
Can something like this cause the climate to change? WHAT IF IT CAUSES THE EARTH TO WARM!!?? OH THE HUMANITY!!!!
Yes, but only by a small amount. Look at the plots of total solar energy (as measured from space) over the solar cycles since the late 1970s, on the NASA or NOAA websites. Not much change (about 0.1%).
We were warned years ago about the damage we are doing to our planet. Of course we didn't listen as the "money men" on Wall street etc and big business just wanted to drill more and use more coal so they paid governments worldwide to deny the damage such a global warming and the Earths decreasing magnetic field.
So it looks more and more as if the Mayans were right and Mother Nature has decided to remedy matters herself! Personally along with us becoming more and more parochial and starting wars I expect natural events to get worse too until December 21st.
To those that survive I wish you well and hopefully your descendants can do a much better job than we have done in conserving and looking after our small blue green planet.
I wouldn't worry about this present flare. There might be some modest effects but sunspot AR1429 is slowly moving towards the solar centre and we will be in the line of fire for about a week. Chances of another powerful flare from 1429 is pretty high....lets just hope its not of the magnitude I have been chatting about. Don't forget folks in the northern latitudes and that includes states as far south as Carolina to go outside tonight (preferably as far away from city lights as possible....envy you dark skies advocates like Flagstaff AZ...) and see one of natures magnificent displays. Here up north on the 49th we might even get to see reds along with the usual green wavy curtains.
PS....I'd love to watch this from the rim of Meteor Crater in Winslow AZ. Visited it a few years back. The sky there will be exceptionally dark.
Ex Pat, if you are an example of Britain's education system I pity that once great nation. Solar flairs have NOTHING to do with man's activities, nor does the earths magnetic field strength.
P111 - Neither does Rick Flair.
We are all just one Sun Fart away from all being Toast.
It looks like it's time to destroy our sun before it destroys us... Oh, wait!!!
Now that was good ....
here comes the sun,little darlin,here comes the sun,and i say"its all right"
Start building and deploying backups for the huge electrical transformers that could be damaged NOW.
Just took a look at the sun through about ten sheets of film negative (still have some :-) and sunspot AR1429 is so large you can see it with the naked eye. Seems to be growing (Sauron? :-) and is probably as big as Neptune. One of the largest sunspots I've ever seen.
Too late and unnecessary if the retrofits are installed. MUCH less costly but worth having some spares on hand as most if not all are built outside the USA...naturally.
This is all obama's fault hmmm....not sure why yet, however; as obama said the buck stops with him!.
Is it too early to start yelling "the sky is falling!"?
better hang on ! ever heard of SHOOTING STAR, just think about the lyrics.
you know usually u only fear what u know so if u dont know anything about dont worry or freak out ,take what ever happens.it,s the people that study that stuff that usually worry to much about what happens.hell life,s short enjoy it.
You have not seen anything yet.
Maybe it'll have a positive impact on the stupid race for the nomination. If not maybe it'll be sudden destruction for everyone.
Our entire solar system has proven to be an invincible carrier. A brilliant design that has provided the ideal balances and corrections and defenses for life to flourish and evolve here on Earth.
Scientists have estimated that our solar system has made the very perilous trip, journey toward the centre of the galaxy and then away from the centre at least twice.
We are currently approximately two thirds of the way from the centre, less than one third of the way from the end of the outer of the spiral arm that we see so vividly in the night sky.
Life's a trip. Enjoy the ride and please be considerate of your fellow passengers.
CBS evening news reporting that power grid disruption highly likely from whatever source they obtained this "alarming news" from. I sincerely hope that SOME modifications to the grid were made after the well advertised Quebec incident after all that was 23 YEARS AGO!!! Have we learned nothing?????
Bul&^%t was all the band could play..
If all electric circuits are suddenly zapped, I do not want to imagine what would happen at nuclear plants (not to mention how many aircraft would begin their speedy flight towards the ground).
Read "Hundreds of Fukushimas" in IEEE Spectrum and you will get an idea. IEEE = Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers a highly respected entity. Once the generators at these plant either breakdown or run out of fuel then you have numerous "China Syndromes" happening but lets not get carried away....surely sane minds will retrofit the transformers or am I just hoping????
On a lighter note I'm going to watch the Ten Commandments again to see Yul Brynner worship the Sun God Rah. There might have been some sense for the ancient Egyptians to do this. Maybe we need to sacrifice a few virgins. Where can we find them??
Best line today was "maybe this is Mitt Romney's Act of God".
Will this affect Nuclear Power Plants. What if they loose power? Will they overheat like in Japan?
I can believe we've lived so long without knowing exactly what was going on in the Sun. It just let off a Solar Storm that is 100% guaranteed to give 2,600,000 people Cancer, and interrupt whatever you're watching on TV between the hours of 8 and 10PM on Thursday. Please press the red button on your remote if you feel we should launch a missle at the Sun, please wait a minute between pressing it twice if you feel like Gas Prices are too high.
You are too funny! Thanks for lightening things up.
Not much scares me....but I am scared.....anyone else?????? Please don't let the Mayan be right. I just got my life exactly the way I want it. Just my luck!
Have no fear Michelle. I can assure you this flare is nowhere near the intensity required to do the damage that has been mentioned.....BUT, the danger exists for another "Carrington Event" and the power grids need retrofitting. Hopefully now that a greater awareness to this problem is coming about something will be done. Buy stock in Advanced Fusion Systems of New Rochelle NY...I am the principal shareholder...hahaha. On highly respected technical solar forums I have been perusing, there is no cause for alarm IN THIS INSTANCE but massive sunspot AR1429 will be around a few days longer and "has the potential" for unleashing a monster flare but very unlikely. Guess they might have said that in the 1800's but were not aware of it then. Trivia: its only been since a Russian space probe in the 60's that the "solar wind" was discovered. Whoda thunk that!
None of our electrical and electronic grid is hardened properly. There will be increasing flares like this until a major event December 2012.
If you have not prepared then you better. I have. And I still have more to get. Or else laugh and call me a tin hat. Laugh all you want but don't knock on my door when it does happen.
Blackbird maybe you are right, the Mayan callendar one of the oldest civilisations on our planet are right when their calendar ends so do we, who knows, seeing what has been going on on cruelty on this earth for centuries maybe it is not such a bad idea to start this earth over again but not as we know it.
It is way out of hand as it is.
As for all the disasters that have been happening around the globe who knows if this is not an indication of the end of time.
Bridget....respectfully....one cannot predict the future as it has not yet happened. The Mayan calendar has been misinterpreted and simply reflects the end of an era. True, ancient civilizations did worship elemental aspects and perhaps that wasn't all bad. Sure makes more sense to me than some supposed entity who controls all. I prefer to place my faith in science and keep an open mind on other things. I like the potential for the evolution of Quantum Consciousness which could be the next impressive leap in human evolution. Sadly with all the goings on it might not happen before humankind manages to vanish up its proverbial "youknowwhere". Hope not. Someone said that the only thing scarier than prophesy is self fullfilling prophesy. We will have celestial alignments in December 2012 coupled possibly with more X-flares but the sun will rise the following day rest assured. Do not believe all the doomsday sayers. But then again we could be hit with a previously uncharted asteroid tomorrow so go have fun....watch the skies tonight and be enchanted by the dancing lights as our magnetosphere protects us from the enormous energy being deflected around our wondorous planet.
If we wake up on 12/22/12, we'll know there was nothing to the Mayan calendar. Of course, if we don't we'll never know. So, either the Mayan's were wrong or.......
I hope the people of this Earth are paying attention to all this activity. When in our history has this ever been recorded? Not any time recent, that's for sure. This is a wake up call, a sign, that things are going to get much, much worse. No, the sun isn't going to burn out.........yet. It is going to cause all kinds of problems: those electronics you rely on? Those will quit first. The ozone layer that protects us from the radiation it emmits? It will burn away. You think it's hot in summer? Just wait; it's gonna get hotter. TURN TO GOD, THE ONE IN CHARGE, THE ONE WAITING FOR YOU TO LOVE HIM AGAIN. This is the begining of the end of the comfort life that we have. Prepare for the worst..............
Obama should apologize for this!
The cycle towards the end of Humanity has begun... March is the month when we will witness severe weather pattern changes...leading into May...the second phase of the cycle... when we will begin to see rare cosmic events in the skies... lights, flashes...objects... Finally, the last stage... the unexpected?
Nostradamus said, "The great earthquake shall be in the month of May."
some how..the republicans will blame this on Obama :-)
well wouldn't you