Opening tonight in New York City, is an exhibition of portraits of Russian opposition leaders taken by Kirill Nikitenko alongside their written reflections of the country's future in anticipation of the Dec. 4 Duma elections and next year's presidential election.
The idea to bring together Russian intellectual opinion leaders came from Elena Khodorkovskaya, who noticed that there was no space, even in the media, where opposition leaders of various professions could unite. They hope to show members of the American public who are interested in Russian affairs that there are people besides the formal political opposition who see the country’s future in a completely different way than the official propaganda depicts it.
Each leader was asked: How do you see the future of Russia after March 2012 if Vladimir Putin remains in power?
Kirill Nikitenko / Courtesy of the Institute of Modern Russia
World chess champion Garry Kasparov.
Garry Kasparov – multiple world chess champion, politician and public figure
In 2005, Kasparov ended his chess career to devote his time to the opposition movement. He is chairman of the United Civil Front, one of the co-chairmen of the All-Russian Civil Congress, and a member of the Russian Federation’s National Assembly. In 2008, he founded the opposition movement 'Solidarity,' and later co-wrote 'Putin Must Go.'
I think that Russian authorities will be able to push through this farcical election cycle. But afterward, even Russians who are far removed from the opposition will wonder about their own future and that of their children. And the answers to their questions will be heard in the form of the harshest accusations against the current regime.
The world is on the verge of great economic turmoil. It is clear that Putin's Russia is absolutely unprepared for the challenges of these times. Therefore, the forecast should be for the next 12-15 months and not the next 12 years. I think the reference point will be February 2013. The global crisis will gain momentum at this time. Adjustments to oil prices are possible. Markets will fall. Most likely, the ruble will continue to lose value. In this case, I'm afraid that the analogy with Egypt might be too weak. There is no doubt that Putin would give orders to fire on his own people. He is ready to fight and spill blood because he has nowhere to go. The question is whether there are enough people willing to resist.
Therefore, the opposition should realize that parallel alternatives must be created. Today, there are several interesting projects related to the creation of alternative Internet spaces and online independent television outlets. We just have to distance ourselves from this government and build our own. We need to build links between the hundreds of thousands of people who are ready to do something, but who are still in a vacuum. They must be linked together via horizontal networks that will, in time, save the country from the inevitable collapse of the regime. Russia should not perish along with the Putin regime, but unfortunately, the likelihood of such a catastrophic scenario increases every day.
People who are active, hold a clearly defined position, and who are ready to act as free citizens could quickly create a qualitatively different situation in Russia. So the answer to the question of what happens during the regime's death throes depends on the willingness of many people to take part in these changes. --Garry Kasparov
Kirill Nikitenko / Courtesy of the Institute of Modern Russia
Human Rights Activist and Chairperson of Moscow Helsinki Group, Lyudmila Alekseeva.
Lyudmila Alekseeva – Human Rights Activist, Chairperson of Moscow Helsinki Group
A history teacher, editor at the Nauka (“Science”) publishing house, and a member of the Institute of Scientific Information on Social Sciences at the Soviet Academy of Sciences. In the 1960s, she became an active member of the dissident movement and engaged in self-publishing activities (“samizdat”). In 1976, she joined the newly-created human rights organization Moscow Helsinki Group (MHG). Shortly after the group was formed, she was forced to leave the USSR under threat and lived in exile in the U.S. for over 15 years, where she published a monograph, 'The History of Dissent in the USSR.' In 1996, she returned to Russia, revived MHG and became a member of the Commission on Human Rights.
I have a feeling that this election will be different from the previous one, but not because something has changed among the authorities. The authorities, unfortunately, will continue to strive for the victory of the United Russia party. But if before you had people saying that they cannot affect the situation and are helpless, now they are angry. People no longer respect their own state. And I’m not the only one who sees this.
In August, the Levada Center published the following survey data: 64% of respondents said they do not trust the State Duma (the Russian lower house) and United Russia, 58% disapproved of the current deputies' activities, 19% said they were more or less satisfied with them, and only 1% were completely satisfied. Moreover, 55% said that authorities were concerned only with their own well-being, and only 12% described them as a good team of politicians who are leading the country in the right direction.
These elections will be rigged just like the previous ones. Here's some more data: in 2011, 62% of respondents said that the 2007 elections were rigged in favor of United Russia. But waiting for decisive action of the kind we saw in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia is impossible in such a large multi-ethnic country as Russia. Even if these next elections go the way authorities want them to, I doubt that the ones afterward will follow the same recipe. Something will happen in the interim. The regime won't necessarily fall, but one thing is clear: by forcing the desired result for the parliamentary and presidential elections, Putin will not be able to feel and rule the same way as in the previous presidency. He will have to have more consideration for the people. --Lyudmila Alekseeva
Kirill Nikitenko / Courtesy of the Institute of Modern Russia
Alexei Navalny - Lawyer, Public Figure, Founder of “RosPil” Anti-Corruption Project
A lawyer with a degree in Finance and Credit, Navalny joined the 'Yabloko' political party, where he participated in the founding of a series of youth and civic movements. In 2008, he launched several ant-corruption projects aimed at investigating abuses at large Russian corporations including Gazprom Neft and the embezzlement of funds at Transneft. Later he launched 'RosPil,' devoted to government corruption and 'RosYama' a project on repairing Russia's roadways.
It doesn’t make any difference if it’s March 2012 or March 2013. In reality, no dates or deadlines have any meaning. The exact date of the election makes no difference. Putin and his cronies, with the help of their political will, usurped power in our country and are using it to get rich. They will remain in power until we find our own political will to remove them. For this reason, the prognosis is not based on any measures Putin takes. The prognosis is entirely dependent on us. --Alexei Navalny
Kirill Nikitenko / Courtesy of the Institute of Modern Russia
Lyudmila Ulitskaya - Writer
She worked at the Institute of General Genetics at the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, but in 1970, she was fired for reproducing a “Samizdat” (a censored publication). She began writing short stories in the 1980's and later published a novella, 'Sonechka,' which brought her worldwide attention and started her successful literary career. Another of her novels won the Booker Prize and Ulitskaya'sbooks have been translated into 32 languages. In 2009, her correspondence with prisoner Mikhail Khodorkovsky was published in the newspaper.
That is a difficult question, and my answer will not be trivial.
I have a feeling that the future course of events will have nothing to do with whether or not Putin is in power, because a flowerbed sown with thistle seeds, turnip seeds, and who knows what else cannot grow tomatoes, strawberries, or even pineapples. Today there is no force capable of rapidly and sharply changing the current situation, which has developed over the course of almost two decades.
The consciousness of the formerly Soviet person, who has become a Russian, has not changed, and I would even venture to say that new traits, which are highly unfavorable for the development of the country, have appeared in him. The general corruption of our society has taken on an all-encompassing character. It reaches not just the upper echelons of our state, but all of the lower classes as well. For this reason, serious changes to the life of our society, though they are desirable, will require more than one year and not just the replacement of one person by another.
We see the Putin-Medvedev situation – they’re practically one person. When Medvedev came to power as president, many Westerners asked me: “How do you see this situation developing?” to which I replied (and it turns out I was correct) that the litmus test would be the [Mikhail] Khodorkovsky affair. If Khodorkovsky was released, we would consider that the government had changed. If not, then the government had remained the same. Unfortunately, it turned out to have remained the same.
I don't think that the upcoming election can radically change the general direction of the development of our society. I’m afraid that several decades of “oil stability” await us, followed by severe turmoil.
Will we be able to find a new way, to join the ranks of civilized nations who respect the law? That is an important question.
I'm not very optimistic, but on the other hand, I'm a realist with a sort of mystical inclination. In our situation, we can only have faith in some unforeseen event, which we could call a “Black Swan” miracle (thank you to Nassim Taleb for this term). This black swan is an unexpected event that is totally unpredictable. My hope is for a good black swan to arrive, flap its wings, and cause a beneficial event that will change the direction we're moving in. This is, perhaps, the only hope that I think is more or less realistic. -- Lyudmila Ulitskaya
The exhibition, 'RUSSIAN VISIONARIES. INTO THE LIGHT' opens tonight through Dec. 12 at 25CPW Gallery in New York City.
More information on the exhibit from the Institute of Modern Russia.
More information on 25CPW Gallery.
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